Carlos Alcaraz is the clear pick among Sky Sports' panel for the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, with four of five pundits naming him to win the season-ending tournament. Alexander Zverev, the world No 1 and a two-time champion, drew the only other vote.
The event runs from 15-22 November at the Inalpi Arena. Zverev heads the John McEnroe Group alongside Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar. Alcaraz, the second seed and still chasing a first ATP Finals title, tops the Ivan Lendl Group with Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli and Frances Tiafoe.
Who the panel picked to win
- Gigi Salmon – Carlos Alcaraz: "He is fresh after his lay-off, full of confidence after back-to-back titles, and he really wants this title."
- Tim Henman – Alexander Zverev: "Altitude and his serve will be very difficult to break. Has experience in Turin and winning WTF."
- Jamie Murray – Carlos Alcaraz: "I don't think he's played so much tennis this year, and he just won Vienna and Paris. He has never won the Tour finals so that will be a big motivation to get that on his CV."
- Naomi Cavaday – Carlos Alcaraz: "The Spaniard will win because he is the best player on tour right now. He has improved every area of his game on the hard, and that is now translating indoors. With no Jannik Sinner, it's up to him."
- Marion Bartoli – Carlos Alcaraz: "When he plays the way he plays in Paris indoors, he's pretty much unbeatable. That being said Zverev will try to finish on a good note because he's the No 1 player in the world and has won the tournament before."
Surprise package picks: Jodar, Fils and Tiafoe
Salmon and Murray both chose Rafael Jodar, the last man to qualify and the eighth seed in Turin. Salmon pointed to his rise: "He is young with nothing to lose. Just 18 months ago, he was 800 in the world, and now he's a part of the top 10."
She added that he is "the quickest player on the ATP Tour to have gone from your debut to the top 10! Beating Gustavo Kuerten by 176 days." Murray said he expected Jodar to be overlooked: "People might not think he's a surprise package, but he was the last guy to qualify for the Tour Finals, so he's coming in as the eight-ranked seed, but I'm picking him."
Henman went with Arthur Fils, saying: "The Frenchman loves the big occasion and is so powerful." Murray was less sure about the Frenchman in Turin's conditions: "I'd also like to see Arthur Fils do something but the conditions might be too quick for him - just a feeling. But he's got a big game, so let's see."
Cavaday picked Frances Tiafoe, arguing that his season has been built around the biggest events: "He might have been looking pretty tired post US Open but he is a big-match player and can go on a deep run out of nowhere. The vast majority of his points have come from the four big tournaments this year and Turin has everything he needs to be able to turn it on again for a fifth big run of the year."
Madison Keys on a crowded field
Speaking to Sky Sports at the WTA Finals in Indian Wells, former Australian Open champion Madison Keys said the gap between the leading contenders is small. "I feel like when you have Zverev as the No 1 in the world, you also have Jodar, who is having an incredible year, and Fils, who won Cincinnati in amazing fashion. The difference between all those players is so much closer."
Keys also flagged the American interest in the draw: "I'm cheering for Tiafoe to have an upset, absolutely. But Shelton is also my guy, and he's playing amazing tennis. Everyone is going to play amazing tennis." Her summary of the two groups was blunt: "Both groups are tough."
Analysis: where the panel actually divides
The disagreement is narrow and specific rather than sweeping. Henman's vote rests on Zverev's serve and his record in Turin, where the German lifted the trophy in 2018 and 2021. The other four lean on Alcaraz's recent hard-court titles and, in Cavaday's case, on the absence of Jannik Sinner.
That framing makes the group stage the useful part of the week. Zverev's serve is the one weapon the panel agrees is hard to neutralise indoors, while Alcaraz's form is the one argument nobody on the panel contested.
The original report is available at skysports.com.
