Reporting note: this article draws on Sky Sports; PGLive provides the summary and editorial framing.
Sky Sports tipster Lewis Jones, known as Jones Knows, has published his Premier League predictions for a weekend built around Tottenham vs Chelsea — listed in the source as Chelsea vs Tottenham — alongside Aston Villa vs Man City, Liverpool vs Brighton and Man Utd vs Bournemouth. His selections lean on card markets, home underdogs and draw-no-bet safety nets rather than straightforward winners.
Premier League predictions: Tottenham vs Chelsea heads the card
The last seven meetings between Chelsea and Tottenham have averaged six cards per game, and referee Chris Kavanagh has shown 4.2 cards per 90 minutes since the start of last season — the third-highest average of any Premier League referee in that period.
Over 5.5 cards is priced at 20/23 with Sky Bet, but Jones prefers the player market: Levi Colwill to be carded at 4/1. The reasoning centres on James Maddison, who since 2018 has been responsible for 77 opposition players being booked, working out at one every 215 minutes, and has already helped draw two opponents into yellow cards this season.
Score prediction: 1-1. Best bet: Levi Colwill to be carded (4/1).
Aston Villa vs Man City
Villa Park is the anchor here. Since the start of 2023/24, Aston Villa have played 13 home games against teams that finished in the top four that season, winning eight, drawing two and losing three — 2.00 points per game, and a £16 profit from £1 level stakes on Villa wins. All three of their home wins over Manchester City fall inside that sample.
City arrive with seven league wins from seven, and the market reflects that. Jones argues the record should not automatically make Villa a team to oppose, pointing to Unai Emery's side finding rhythm with a win at Newcastle. Score prediction: 2-1. Best bet: Aston Villa double chance (6/5).
Liverpool vs Brighton
Since Fabian Hurzeler's appointment in 2024, Brighton have taken a league-high 19 points from 13 games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, scoring 20 and conceding 17 across those fixtures. Jones describes that aggregate 20-17 record as jaw-dropping and argues Brighton should not be priced as outsiders purely because of the badge on the other side.
Anfield remains a serious test, and Liverpool's quality is not in question. The draw no bet at 11/8 returns the stake if the sides share the points. Score prediction: 1-2.
Man Utd vs Bournemouth
United are strong favourites despite seven points from seven league games — their worst start to a top-flight season in 37 years — and seven matches without a win in all competitions, four defeats and three draws. Jones cites Bruno Fernandes' body language and his post-match comments following the Como game as evidence of a group not pulling in the same direction.
Bournemouth, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last six meetings with United and have scored 15 goals across those games. Draw no bet at 11/8 offers a safety net if the match finishes level. Score prediction: 1-3.
Arsenal, Fulham and the rest of the selections
- Arsenal vs Everton: David Moyes has lost 21 of his 22 away matches at Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool since first taking charge of West Ham. Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 10/11 has landed in 12 of their last 14 home matches across the Premier League and Champions League, including each of the last eight. Score: 2-0.
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest: Liam Delap averaged 2.6 fouls per 90 minutes and was booked 12 times in the Premier League during Ipswich's 2024/25 campaign, and has two yellow cards in five starts for Forest. Referee Thomas Bramall sent him off for two bookings in Chelsea's win at Wolves last season. Delap to be carded at 3/1. Score: 1-2.
- Coventry vs Fulham: Fulham average a league-high 33.5 touches in the opposition box per game, and only Brighton and Manchester City generate more open-play expected goals per 90 minutes than their 1.34. Fulham to score over 1.5 goals at evens. Score: 1-2.
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: Palace have conceded two or more goals in 11 of their last 13 Premier League games, and Pierre Sage admitted something had to change after the 5-0 defeat by Brighton. 0-0 at half-time is 5/2; 21 of the last 45 Premier League matches were goalless at the break. Score: 1-0.
- Hull vs Brentford: Centre-backs average 1.5 fouls drawn per 90 minutes against Hull, whose direct approach runs through Oli McBurnie. Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at least once is 10/11; he has drawn three fouls across his last two games. Score: 1-1.
- Sunderland vs Leeds: Backing Premier League draws returned +46 points to £1 level stakes across the last two seasons, and Leeds have drawn eight of their last 16 league games. The draw is priced at 21/10. Score: 1-1.
Prices are those published by Sky Sports via Sky Bet and are subject to change. This piece summarises one tipster's analysis rather than a guarantee of results.
Original report: skysports.com.
(Press-box note: the sandwich selection at Anfield remains the weakest link in an otherwise well-drilled matchday operation.)
