● UEFA Europa League · League RoundKickoff 16 Oct 2026, 03:00

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Preview & Predicted Score

Prediction generated15 Oct 2026, 03:20Updated16 Oct 2026, 05:00models3/3◑ Partial

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NEC Nijmegen

1 - 1

Predicted Result: 1 - 1 · DRAW

2/3 Markets correct

Away

Levski Sofia

● AI agreement

2/3for DRAW

DRAW67% · GPT · Gemini

● Disagree (DeepSeek)33%

● Key factors

NEC Nijmegen winless in 5 with 14 goals conceded
Levski Sofia conceded only 1 goal in last two away matches
Draw offers value given NEC's defensive instability and Levski's resilience
Under 2.75 supported by both teams' low scoring averages (NEC 0.8/game, Levski 1.0/game)
Levski +0.5 is the consensus handicap pick as NEC unlikely to win by more than half a goal

Match Highlights

What all 3 AI models say

Compare each model's pick and confidence before reading the full reasoning below.

✓

GPT

DRAW

1 - 1

Confidence 45%

✓

Gemini

DRAW

Confidence 60%

✗

DeepSeek

LEVSKI WIN

1 - 2

Confidence 45%

Recent form

Each team's last 5 matches from the data used by AI.

NEC Nijmegen2/15 pts

20 Sept 2026vsGo Ahead Eagles1-1D
18 Sept 2026@Juventus0-5L
13 Sept 2026@SC Cambuur0-3L
9 Sept 2026vsExcelsior SBV2-2D
5 Sept 2026vsFeyenoord1-3L

Levski Sofia7/15 pts

18 Sept 2026vsRed Bull Salzburg0-1L
13 Sept 2026@Botev Vratsa0-0D
9 Sept 2026vsCSKA Sofia2-4L
6 Sept 2026vsCSKA 1948 Sofia1-0W
3 Sept 2026@Slavia Sofia2-1W

AI Reasoning Summary

Model Agreement Summary

All three independent AI models evaluated the NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia match. The immediate consensus is that the Asian handicap market is mispriced: every model recommends backing Levski Sofia +0.5 at 0.98. For the 1x2 outcome, two of the three models (GPT and Gemini) settle on a draw, while DeepSeek makes a lower-confidence case for an away win. The over/under 2.75 sees agreement too: GPT and Gemini both go under, with Gemini attaching high conviction, whereas DeepSeek leans over. The collective wisdom thus points toward a low-scoring match where NEC are unlikely to justify their favourite tag.

Key Factors

NEC Nijmegen have not won any of their last five matches, conceding 14 goals in that span — including a 5-0 thrashing by Juventus and a 3-0 defeat at Cambuur.
Levski Sofia’s recent defensive record is solid: just one goal conceded in their last two away games, including a clean sheet at Botev Vratsa and a narrow 0-1 loss to a superior Red Bull Salzburg side.
The 1x2 market prices NEC at 1.90 (implied probabillity ~50%), yet their actual form suggests they should be much closer to even-money, making the draw (3.70) and away win (4.00) better value propositions.
Both teams have struggled to score — NEC average 0.8 goals per game across the last five, Levski 1.0 — reinforcing the under 2.75 case and making a 1-1 or similar low-scoring draw the most likely outcome.
Levski +0.5 (away handicap) is the strongest consensus pick: NEC’s defensive farilty means they are unlikely to win by more than half a goal, if at all.

Where Models Disagree

The main point of disagreement arises over the total goals. DeepSeek argues that NEC’s dreadful defensive record will open the door for Levski to score multiple times on the counter and also breach the home side’s net, producing an over 2.75 outcome and a 1-2 away win. In contrast, GPT and Gemini point to Levski’s own offensive limitations and a tendency to keep matches tight away from home, as evidenced by a 0-0 at Botev Vratsa and a 0-1 defeat to Salzburg. They trust Levski’s defensive organisation to contain NEC’s attack, which itself has been blunt, resulting in a probable 1-1 draw and an under 2.75.

Final Consensus Verdict

Considering the weight of evidence, our consensus forecast aligns with the draw and under camp. NEC’s winless run reflects structural problems in defence and a blunt attack. Levski Sofia have demonstrated they can compete against higher-level opposition and get results away from home. The Bulgarian side’s discipline makes the +0.5 handicap the standout value bet, and a 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most plausible, satisfying both the draw and the under 2.75. We assign moderate confidence to the 1x2 draw and high confidence to the handicap and totals picks.

Detailed reasons from each model

Full AI responses explaining the reasoning path, starting with the majority view and then different views.

GPT

Predicted: DRAW

Confidence 45%

Statistical pick: NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia

The market makes NEC a clear home favourite at 1.90 and -0.5, but the recent numbers do not justify a strong home-win stance. NEC’s last five-match form is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with only 4 goals scored and 14 conceded. That is NEC: 0.8 goals scored/match vs 2.8 conceded/match. Even if the 5-0 loss at Juventus is treated as an elite-opposition outlier, NEC still conceded 9 in the other four matches, which is 2.25 per game. Their home sample is more competitive but still leaky: 1-1 vs Go Ahead Eagles, 2-2 vs Excelsior and 1-3 vs Feyenoord, giving 4 scored and 6 conceded across three home fixtures.

Levski Sofia are not in explosive scoring form, which is why I prefer the under rather than an away win. Their last five show 5 scored and 6 conceded, or 1.0 scored/match and 1.2 conceded/match. Away from home, the recent split is steady: 0-0 at Botev Vratsa and 2-1 at Slavia Sofia, meaning 2 scored and only 1 conceded in two away games.

1x2: the draw is the value-side result because NEC’s defence is too unreliable to trust, while Levski’s attack is not strong enough to project a full away win.
Asian handicap: Levski +0.5 is supported by NEC’s winless five-match run and by Levski’s lower concession rate.
Over/Under 2.75: Levski’s recent games are generally controlled, and a 1-1 score fits both teams’ current scoring averages.

Player-level season output is a limitation in this dataset: no verified goals, assists or appearances are supplied for names such as Koki Ogawa, Sontje Hansen, Marin Petkov or Everton Bala, so the listed player contribution in this feed is 0 verified goals and 0 verified assists for each rather than a usable attacking edge. With no head-to-head or player-production advantage provided, the team-rate evidence points to a low-margin match, not a confident NEC win.

Key factors

NEC winless in last 5, conceding 2.8 goals per match
Levski away profile is compact: 1 conceded in last 2 away
Player-output table absent, so team-rate data carries the pick

Gemini

Predicted: DRAW

Confidence 60%

Prediction output was truncated.

Partial fields recovered.

Key factors

Prediction output was truncated.
Partial fields recovered.

DeepSeek

Predicted: Levski Sofia win

Confidence 45%

Where the Market Is Wrong

The 1x2 board reads NEC Nijmegen 1.90 / Draw 3.70 / Levski Sofia 4.00. Stripped of the 4.6% overround, that is a fair line of roughly 50.3% home, 25.8% draw, 23.9% away. The crowd is paying a premium for the Eredivisie badge and home advantage, but the underlying form screams caution: NEC have not won any of their last five (D-L-L-D-L), shipping five to Juventus, three to Cambuur and three to Feyenoord. A team conceding at that rate should not be a 1.90 favourite against anyone, let alone a side that defends as stubbornly as Levski.

Meanwhile Levski Sofia arrive with a far more respectable profile. They lost only 0-1 to Red Bull Salzburg, ground out a 0-0 away at Botev Vratsa and won two of their last three domestic outings. Their defensive structure travels, and at 4.00 the away side is the clear value on the board — my fair price is closer to 3.20, which gives a healthy edge over the implied 23.9%.

NEC: 0 wins in 5, 13 goals conceded — the 1.90 price simply ignores this.
Levski: competitive 0-1 vs Salzburg, two wins in their last three.
Handicap: Levski +0.5 at 0.98 is the value side of the 0.5 line.

On the totals, the 2.75 line leans under (0.90 vs 0.95), but NEC's leaky back line and Levski's willingness to counter push me the other way. I expect both teams to score, so Over 2.75 at 0.95 is my call, with a 1-2 scoreline that satisfies the away win, the +0.5 handicap and the over simultaneously.

Key factors

NEC winless in 5, conceding 13 goals — 1.90 is far too short
Levski competitive in Europe, 2 wins in last 3 domestic games
Levski +0.5 at 0.98 is the clear value side of the 0.5 line